The role of transport accessibility within the spread of the Coronavirus pandemic in Italy

The Covid-19 pandemic has caused an unprecedented global crisis and led to a huge number of deaths, economic hardship and the disruption of everyday life. Measures to restrict accessibility adopted by many countries were a swift yet effective response to contain the spread of the virus. Within this topic, this paper aims to support policies and decision makers in defining the most appropriate strategies to manage the Covid-19 crisis. Precisely the correlation between positive Covid-19 cases and transport accessibility of an area was investigated through a multiple linear regression model. Estimation results show that transport accessibility was the variable that better explained the number of Covid-19 infections (about 40% in weight), meaning that the greater is the accessibility of a certain geographical area, the easier the virus reaches its population. Furthermore, other context variables were also significant, i.e. socio-economic, territorial and pollutant variables. Estimated findings show that accessibility, which is often used to measure the wealth of an area, becomes its worst enemy during a pandemic, providing to be the main vehicle of contagion among its citizens. These original results allow the definition of possible policies and/or best practices to better manage mobility restrictions. The quantitative estimates performed show that a possible and probably more sustainable policy for containing social interactions could be to apply lockdowns in proportion to the transport accessibility of the areas concerned, in the sense that the higher the accessibility, the tighter should be the mobility restriction policies adopted.