Narrazioni, trasformazioni e futuri possibili della provincia di Caserta: un’analisi attraverso il modello dei Tre Orizzonti

This contribution analyses the province of Caserta as an emblematic case of territorial transformation within a highly complex socio-economic context. Adopting the Three Horizons (3H) model as a strategic foresight framework, the study interprets the territory through the interplay between negative narratives of decline (H1), emerging counter-narratives driven by eco-sustainable innovation (H2), and a long-term desirable future grounded in shared vision and governance capacity (H3). Based on desk research combining scientific literature, institutio-nal reports and territorial data, the analysis highlights both persistent structural weaknesses and promising dynamics in green innovation, agro-food value chains and digital transition. The paper argues that Caserta should not be framed as a declining area, but as a laboratory of plural futures, where systemic innovation, collective learning and anticipatory governance represent key conditions for ter-ritorial regeneration.