Projecting decarbonization of hospitality buildings in cold climate: Dynamic simulation of hybrid EPS and WWHPs system under shifting energy demands

Climate change is expected to significantly alter building energy demand patterns, particularly in cold regions where heating traditionally dominates. This study addresses the question of how future climatic conditions will impact the energy and environmental performance of advanced geothermal systems in hospitality buildings. To investigate this, a novel hybrid configuration integrating Energy Pile Systems (EPSs) with water-to-water heat pumps (WWHPs) was applied to an 18,000 m² hotel in Ottawa, Canada. Dynamic simulations were conducted using projected climate data for 2050 and 2080 under multiple Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results indicate a substantial decline in heating demand, with heating degree days decreasing by up to 27.1 %, while cooling requirements rise sharply, with summer cooling degree days increasing by as much as 225.6 %. These shifts influence electrical loads, as Monthly Electrical Peak Intensity (MEPI) decreases during transitional seasons but increases in summer, contributing to an overall reduction in annual electrical Energy Use Intensity (EUI) of up to 4.8 % and a similar decrease in Emission Intensity (EI), contingent on future grid emission factors. The findings underscore the critical role of utility decarbonization in achieving climate targets and highlight the need for adaptive design strategies. This research provides a forward-looking framework for integrating climate resilience and sustainability into hospitality building operations, offering actionable insights for long-term energy planning and environmental impact mitigation.