Impact of natural disasters on public corruption: The L’Aquila case

Do large-scale natural disasters cause or increase public sector corruption? Conversely, can disasters lead to a reduction in corruption? This paper addresses these questions by applying Synthetic Control Methodology (SCM) to estimate the impact of the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake on public corruption in Italy. Using provincial-level data spanning 2006 to 2017, the study compares L'Aquila province with a weighted selection of Italian provinces acting as a synthetic control. Results indicate a significant increase in public corruption following the earthquake, highlighting malfeasance during recovery and reconstruction phases. The paper concludes with critical reflections on challenges in public governance after natural disasters and offers policy recommendations aimed at improving administrative transparency and accountability. These findings contribute empirical evidence that can inform both practitioners and scholars interested in disaster management and public sector integrity.