Derivation and Validation of the PRECISE-HBR Score to Predict Bleeding After Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

Background: Accurate bleeding risk stratification after percutaneous coronary intervention is important for treatment individualization. However, there is still an unmet need for a more precise and standardized identification of patients at high bleeding risk. We derived and validated a novel bleeding risk score by augmenting the Predicting Bleeding Complications in Patients Undergoing Stent Implantation and Subsequent Dual Antiplatelet Therapy (PRECISE-DAPT) score with the Academic Research Consortium for High Bleeding Risk (ARC-HBR) criteria. Methods: The derivation cohort comprised 29 188 patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention, of whom 1136 (3.9%) had Bleeding Academic Research Consortium (BARC) 3 or 5 bleeding at 1 year, from 4 contemporary real-world registries and the XIENCE V USA trial. The PRECISE-DAPT score was refitted with a Fine-Gray model in the derivation cohort and extended with the ARC-HBR criteria. The primary outcome was BARC 3 or 5 bleeding within 1 year. Independent predictors of BARC 3 or 5 bleeding were selected at multivariable analysis (P<0.01). The discrimination of the score was internally assessed with apparent validation and cross-validation. The score was externally validated in 4578 patients from the MASTER DAPT trial (Management of High Bleeding Risk Patients Post Bioresorbable Polymer Coated Stent Implantation With an Abbreviated Versus Prolonged DAPT Regimen) and 5970 patients from the STOPDAPT-2 (Short and Optimal Duration of Dual Antiplatelet Therapy-2) total cohort. Results: The PRECISE-HBR score (age, estimated glomerular filtration rate, hemoglobin, white blood cell count, previous bleeding, oral anticoagulation, and ARC-HBR criteria) showed an area under the curve (AUC) for 1-year BARC 3 or 5 bleeding of 0.73 (95% CI, 0.71-0.74) at apparent validation, 0.72 (95% CI, 0.70-0.73) at cross-validation, 0.74 (95% CI, 0.68-0.80) in MASTER DAPT, and 0.73 (95% CI, 0.66-0.79) in STOPDAPT-2, with superior discrimination compared with PRECISE-DAPT (cross-validation: ΔAUC, 0.01; P=0.02; MASTER DAPT: ΔAUC, 0.05; P=0.004; STOPDAPT-2: ΔAUC, 0.02; P=0.20) and other risk scores. In the derivation cohort, a cutoff of 23 points identified 11 414 patients (39.1%) with a 1-year BARC 3 or 5 bleeding risk ≥4%. An alternative version of the score, including acute myocardial infarction on admission instead of white blood cell count, showed similar predictive ability. Conclusions: The PRECISE-HBR score is a contemporary, simple 7-item risk score to predict bleeding after percutaneous coronary intervention, offering a moderate improvement in discrimination over multiple existing scores. Further evaluation is required to assess its impact on clinical practice.