Assessing Soil Erosion Susceptibility for Past and Future Scenarios in Semiarid Mediterranean Agroecosystems

The evaluation of soil erosion rate, particularly in agricultural lands, is a crucial tool for long-term land management planning. This research utilized the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model to simulate soil erosion in a semiarid watershed located in South Portugal. To understand the evolution of the erosive phenomenon over time, soil erosion susceptibility maps for both historical and future periods were created. The historical period exhibited the highest average soil erosion for each land use, followed by the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 8.5 and 4.5 scenarios. The differences in soil loss between these two RCPs were influenced by the slightly increasing trend of extreme events, particularly notable in RCP 8.5, leading to a higher maximum value of soil erosion. The research highlighted a tendency towards erosion in the agroforestry system known as "montado", specifically on Leptosols throughout the entire basin. The study confirmed that Leptosols are most susceptible to sediment loss due to their inherent characteristics. Additionally, both "montado" and farmed systems were found to negatively impact soil erosion rates if appropriate antierosion measures are not adopted. This underscores the importance of identifying all factors responsible for land degradation in Mediterranean watersheds. In conclusion, the study highlighted the significance of assessing soil erosion rates in agricultural areas for effective land management planning in the long run. The utilization of the SWAT model and the creation of susceptibility maps provide valuable insights into the erosive phenomenon's dynamics, urging the implementation of antierosion strategies to protect the soil and combat land degradation in the region.