Demographic Change and the Urban-Rural Divide: Understanding the Role of Density and Agglomeration in Fertility Transitions

Assuming fertility variations across urban–rural gradients, our study focuses on the traditional polarization in urban and rural fertility, offering a refined interpretation of demographic processes associated with population density. More specifically, we tested the intimate relationship between local fertility and population density, comparing the outcomes of a classical urban–rural model (reflecting a linear relationship between the two variables) with those of a more complex quadratic model (implying the so-called ‘suburban fertility hypothesis’) in Greece. We considered fertility dynamics in three districts (urban, suburban, and rural) of 51 Greek prefectures for the last two decades (2000–2009 and 2010–2019) and controlled for the diverging impact of local contexts at different population density levels. Taken as a measure of ‘maturity’ of regional systems, urban fertility surpassed rural fertility in almost all prefectures of Greece. An additional sign of maturity in metropolitan systems indicates that suburban birth rates are higher than urban birth rates in prefectures with high population density (Athens, Thessaloniki, Heraklion, and Patras). The regression outcomes document a specific response of fertility to regional development, evidencing a spatially differentiated shift from classical urban–rural disparities toward a more complex model with the emergence of suburban poles. From this perspective, fertility divides reflect the evolutions of socioeconomic forces (more or less rapidly) along the urban gradient.