The Global Macroeconomic Impacts Of Covid-19: Four European Scenarios

The COVID-19 outbreak has upset the EU economy. The evolution and its economic impact are highly uncertain which makes it difficult for governments, firms, as big Company and SMEs, workers, policymakers to formulate an appropriate European policy response. In order to better understand possible economic outcomes, this paper explores four different scenarios of how Covid 19 might evolve in the coming years using database by European Banking Authority (2020). It examines the impacts of different scenarios both on macroeconomic and markets outcomes in European Union by examining a previously macroeconomic theory in a new context such as Covid 19 pandemic. The scenarios elaborated by SPSS 26.0, highlights that even a contained outbreak could significantly affect the European economy in the middle rung in terms of public social values and these weaknesses could undermine the objectives of building a united Europe in addressing the crisis created by Covid 19. Policies, reforms and behaviors that bring us back to growth rates before the pandemic, with sustained, broad-based and balanced support, would also help to maintain easing conditions on financial markets, the reduction of the average debt burden and the promotion of a gradual rebalancing of public finances