Predictive model for the seismic vulnerability assessment of small historic centres: Application to the inner Abruzzi Region in Italy

The paper presents a predictive model for assessing the seismic vulnerability of small historic centres. The model, developed in the framing of other similar methods proposed in the past, needs a limited number of parameters and is based on information collected in the aftermath of the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake. First, a damage survey carried out on two historic centres hit by L'Aquila earthquake is presented and the most recurrent failure types are classified in terms of severity and extension, leading to damage probability matrices (DPMs). Second, the proposed predictive model is calibrated on the basis of simple observations on the buildings’ structural features. Finally, the model is validated through the application to a third historic centre characterized by the same features of the first two case studies. This application proves the generality of the proposed procedure by accurately reproducing the damage that was actually reported after the 2009 earthquake. The model provides useful information on the most effective anti-seismic strategies that could be implemented at the urban scale for seismic risk reduction.