A Cost-Benefit Analysis of a Fully-Automated Driverless Metro Line in a High-Density Metropolitan Area in Italy

The project of the “New metro Lines” in Naples (Italy) is one of the most advanced urban transport infrastructures in Italy, with stations with high aesthetic and architectural standard and high-quality services. The urban railway network is also integrated with the regional one. Within this context, the aim of the paper was to evaluate the economic convenience of a new fully-automated driverless metro line in the north of Naples metropolitan area (high population density), through the application of a cost-benefit analyses, according to both the National and the EU guide lines. The benefits in using this technology are the high quality of the services, the safety and the high train frequency offered, jointly with the lower operating costs. The main “ex-ante” activities performed were: i) the investment, maintenance and operating costs estimation; ii) travel demand estimation (influence basin and the total passengers shifted from other non-sustainable transport modes to the new line); iii) benefits estimation (both for transport users and for non-users and for environmental). The new line is 16 kms long with a 50% of the path in underground. The results of cost estimation show that the total investment cost is about 932 million euro, while the incidence of the technology cost is about the 22.5% of the total (194 million euro). The main cost-benefit performance indicators were also estimated showing a high socio-economic convenience of this transport project (e.g. a benefit/costs ratio equal to 2.5).