Evaluation of earthquake damage scenario of churches at regional scale_Experiences in Abruzzi and perspectives in Campania

In the paper a synthesis of the main results of an activity carried out in the immediate aftermath of the 2009 L’Aquila earthquake are firstly presented. They concerns a stock of 64 three nave churches belonging to both the L’Aquila and Sulmona-Valva dioceses in the Abruzzi region. Such an activity was addressed towards the damage classification and evaluation on the churches, taking into account the most recurring failure mechanisms due to both the global structural response and the local mechanisms involving specific macro-elements. The evaluated damage frequencies, organized in terms of Damage Probability Matrices, permitted to calibrate suitable predictive model for reduction of seismic risk that are able to forecast typical damage scenarios that could be expected on similar churches in case of future earthquake events. Then, the plan of a trial step in progress, based on the application of the above predictive model on a larger stock of churches belonging to the Campania region and in particular to the Caserta province is presented. Differently from the Abruzzi, such a territory is characterized by both an high density of population and a very large number of churches, with a significant seismic risk. A preliminary introduction regarding the main dioceses of the Caserta district is given and the perspectives of such an activity are illustrated.