Seismic vulnerability assessment of masonry churches through the application of probabilistic methods

The current paper deals with the seismic vulnerability of churches belonging to the south-east pat of the L’Aquila district, an area known as Sulmona-Valva Diocese. The attention is focused on twenty-six three naves churches characterized by similar stylistic, geometric and structural features. In a first stage, a wide survey campaign, conducted in the immediate aftermath of the 2009 seismic event with the aim of classifying the observed damages and to individuate the main recurrent failure mechanisms is presented. Then, a vulnerability assessment is carried out, based on the evaluation of 28 possible local damage mechanisms which are accounted for in order to calculate a global damage index. The empirical observations are interpreted through the statistical distribution of the revealed damages, so to define Damage Probability Matrixes, which represent an effective tool for assessing future seismic likely damage scenarios on the analyzed population of buildings and, therefore, for evaluating seismic risk mitigation strategies to be implemented.