This is a companion paper to Ferragina, Giovannetti and Pastore (2005) and focuses on Romania-EU actual and potential trade. The Romanian trade potential with five EU members (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UK) is computed using an “out-of-sample” methodology for the period 1995-‘01. The coefficients are taken from panel estimators of the gravity equation relative to intra-EU15 trade. The analysis suggests the existence of an important unexploited trade potential with Romania, which, nonetheless, is not different in size from that of other CEECs. The potential to actual trade ratio ranges from 2.2 to 2.7 and is sharply declining, suggesting that further dramatic economic integration is to be expected in the near future.
“Romania-EU Actual and Potential Trade”
PASTORE, Francesco
2005
Abstract
This is a companion paper to Ferragina, Giovannetti and Pastore (2005) and focuses on Romania-EU actual and potential trade. The Romanian trade potential with five EU members (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UK) is computed using an “out-of-sample” methodology for the period 1995-‘01. The coefficients are taken from panel estimators of the gravity equation relative to intra-EU15 trade. The analysis suggests the existence of an important unexploited trade potential with Romania, which, nonetheless, is not different in size from that of other CEECs. The potential to actual trade ratio ranges from 2.2 to 2.7 and is sharply declining, suggesting that further dramatic economic integration is to be expected in the near future.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
